Velocity: How do you predict your Scrum team's capacity?

Velocity is one of the most commonly used Scrum metrics. It provides teams with insight into how much work they can deliver on average per Sprint. But beware: velocity is not a performance standard or KPI – it's a tool to create realistic plans and become more predictable.

In this guide, we'll look at:

• What velocity is exactly and how to calculate it.
• How to use it in Sprint Planning and release forecasts.
• The pitfalls of velocity and how to avoid them.

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What is velocity?

Velocity is the average number of Story Points that a team delivers per Sprint.

Example:

• Sprint 1: 20 Story Points completed
• Sprint 2: 25 Story Points completed
• Sprint 3: 22 Story Points completed

👉 Average velocity = 22 Story Points per Sprint

This value helps teams estimate how much work they can take on in a next Sprint.

💡 Important: Velocity is always team-specific. There's no point in comparing teams.

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How to use velocity?

1. Sprint Planning

Teams use their average velocity to determine how much work they can realistically commit to in a Sprint.

Example:

• Team velocity = 22 Story Points per Sprint.
• The Product Backlog contains a Story of 13 points, one of 8, and one of 5.
• The team decides that 13 + 8 = 21 is achievable.

Velocity ensures that teams don't commit to too much or too little work.

2. Release Forecasts

Velocity also helps with long-term planning.

Example:

• A project has a Product Backlog of 220 Story Points.
• The team has an average velocity of 22 points per Sprint.
• Estimated duration: 220 ÷ 22 = 10 Sprints.

Please note: This is not a hard deadline, but an indication. Velocity can change due to team changes, complexity, or external factors.

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Common pitfalls with velocity

• Using velocity as a KPI → Puts pressure on teams to achieve 'more points'. Solution: Use velocity as a tool, not as a performance metric.
• Comparing teams → Each team estimates differently. Solution: Only compare velocity within the same team.
• Not adjusting regularly → Velocity changes due to experience and team changes. Solution: Use an average over the last 3-5 Sprints.
• Focusing on high velocity instead of value → Can lead to point inflation (faster but lower quality work). Solution:Ensure velocity goes hand in hand with quality and impact.

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Practical tips for better velocity estimates

✔ Use a rolling average – Look at the last 3 to 5 Sprints to spot trends. ✔ Don't forget to account for holidays and absences – A team with fewer people will deliver less. ✔ Velocity is a team metric – Do not translate to individual performance. ✔ Combine velocity with qualitative insights – Sprint Reviews and Retrospectives provide additional context.

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